Posts Tagged ‘2016 Elections’

Mississippi Presidential Primer for March 8 Primary

Saturday, March 5th, 2016

Awarding Mississippi Delegates

Winning Mississippi’s Republican delegates in the March 8 primary depends not only on the statewide total, but also the votes cast in each of the four congressional districts.

By Congressional District:

Each Mississippi congressional district will award 3 delegates. If a candidate carries the majority vote in a district, he wins all 3 delegates. If there is no majority, first place in the district gets 2 delegates and second place gets 1 delegate. Total congressional district delegates available: 12.

By State At Large:

Each candidate receiving at least 15% of the vote statewide receives a portion of the delegates. The delegates are awarded to all candidates meeting that threshold apportioned by their share of the vote. Total state at large delegates: 28.

RNC Delegates:

Mississippi Republican Party Chairman Joe Nosef, Mississippi National Committeewoman Jeanne Luckey and Mississippi National Committeeman Henry Barbour each vote as 1 delegate by virtue of their position on the Republican National Committee. Barbour has endorsed Marco Rubio. Total RNC delegates: 3.

Where to Watch:

In 2012, 293,783 voters cast ballots in the Mississippi Republican Presidential Primary. The following 13 counties made up 54.4% of the Republican Presidential Primary results.

· Capital Tri-County: Rankin, Hinds, Madison: 17.5%

· Memphis Suburbs: DeSoto: 5.7%

· Gulf Coast: Harrison, Jackson, Hancock, Pearl River: 15.6%

· Tupelo: Lee 4.4%

· Meridian: Lauderdale 3.1%

· Pinebelt: Jones, Lamar, Forrest 8.1%

Up For Grabs:

Mississippi’s Second Congressional District is represented by Congressman Bennie Thompson, a Democrat in a very secure Democratic district. Mississippi’s other three districts are heavily Republican, but the 2nd District awards 3 delegates just like each of the others. Parts of Hinds County (Clinton) & Madison County are in the 2nd District; also a strong showing in Warren (Vicksburg), Washington (Greenville), Leflore (Greenwood), Panola (Batesville), Copiah (Crystal Springs) and Yazoo (Yazoo City) could capture 1 or 2 delegates with a much lower total vote number than in the more Republican areas of the state. Y’all Politics with Magellan Strategies BR released a poll last week showing Donald J. Trump leading in all four congressional districts but posting his lowest numbers in the 2nd District where 1 in 5 voters were still undecided.


Four years ago, Mississippi split three ways with Rick Santorum at 32.8%; Newt Gingrich at 31.2%; Mitt Romney at 30.6%. After all district delegates and at large delegates were awarded, Santorum won 13 delegates while Gingrich and Romney each took 12.

On the Ballot:

While only four candidates continue their campaigns, thirteen candidates are listed on the Republican ballot. Mississippi does not have early voting but absentee voting began on January 23rd and ended at noon on March 5. A special election in Senate District 25 (Hinds, Madison) is being held on March 8 as well. While that race is nonpartisan on the ballot, both candidates are Republicans and the race will be listed on both the Republican and Democratic primary ballots.

Kasich featured speaker at Hinds-Rankin GOP fundraiser March 1

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2016

GOP Presidential candidate Governor John Kasich will be the guest speaker at a fundraiser for the Hinds and Rankin County Republican committees on March 1, one week before the Mississippi Republican Primary.

Hinds County GOP Chairman Pete Perry stressed in an e-mail to committee members that this is a fundraiser for the Republican committees in Hinds and Rankin and not an endorsement  of Kasich for President:

This has to be treated as a fund raising opportunity for us and the others involved – not as any sort of endorsement of Governor Kasich.  As most of you know, I personally like and support him but I know there are others on our committees who like and/or are supporting other candidates. This event will feature Governor Kasich and his history and his experiences while serving as both a Congressman and as a Governor, so even if you are leaning toward voting for another candidate I urge you to get behind this event since it is going to be OUR fundraiser.

While not an endorsement of Kasich, the event provides him with a high profile Republican audience a week before voters go to the polls in Mississippi. The capital tri-county area of Hinds, Rankin and Madison counties made up 17.5% of the Mississippi Republican Primary vote in 2012.

In addition to the Primary on March 8, Hinds and Madison voters are also voting in a special state Senate election. Special elections are nonpartisan but it is a strongly Republican district and both candidates in the race are Republicans.

The event will be at the Jackson Hilton (1001 East County Line Road) with a reception at 6:00pm and a dinner at 7:00pm. A table of 8 costs $800. RSVP to with checks payable to Central Mississippi Republicans (975 North Street, Suite 206; Jackson, MS 39202).

160K Tennessee Republicans have already voted; how many voted for Bush?

Monday, February 22nd, 2016

Tennessee’s Republican Primary on March 1 will help narrow the field among the GOP’s remaining competitive candidates: Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio and Donald Trump. Kasich and Trump are both planning events in Memphis (to take advantage of the Arkansas & Mississippi overlap).

Tennessee is one of many states to vote that day, but what sticks out to me is that between February 10 and February 20: 162,520 Tennessee Republicans used early voting to cast their ballots. I wonder, how many voted for Jeb Bush? Bush dropped out the night of February 20.

Surely not a lot; that’s the reason Bush dropped out. He was unable to post strong numbers. But let’s say he took 5% - will 8,000 votes make a difference on March 1? Likely not, but I think most campaigns would rather have had the opportunity to compete for those votes than for them to make no difference at all.

Texas and Georgia also vote on March 1. Texas, home of George W. Bush (and Ted Cruz) has been doing early voting since February 16. Georgia started in-person early voting before the New Hampshire Primary on February 8 (in addition to Jeb Bush, Governor Chris Christie and businesswoman Carly Fiorina were both still in the race then, as well).

In Ohio, if you vote early and your candidate drops out, not only do you not make a difference, your vote isn’t even counted: (NBC News)

Matt Borges, head of the Ohio Republican Party, said he predicts one-third of voters will vote early in Ohio.

Voters are heading to the polls even as the field continues to narrow.

In Ohio, for instance, any candidate that dropped out after February 4 - Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum - will still be on the ballot but their votes won’t be tabulated.

I’ve written about my opposition to early voting many times.

I believe it increases the opportunity for election fraud, lengthens the campaign season while diminishing political debate, creates logistical challenges for election officials, and substitutes a civics of convenience for our citizen fellowship. (”Rejecting early voting“)

Unlike absentee ballots, where you can show up at the poll on election day and vote and your absentee ballot is removed, you can’t change your mind. Late debates, breaking news, closing arguments - none of that matters if you’ve used early voting to cast your ballot. (“Voting early ignores debates”)

I wonder how different the results on March 1 would be if more voters waited until March 1 to cast their vote.

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